COP 30 has recently concluded.
It has as its theme mutirao, the Brazilian word for ‘collective efforts’.
The final document forming what is known as the Belem Political Package was entitled Global Mutirão: Uniting humanity in a global mobilization against climate change.
The Paris Agreement temperature goal of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels was reaffirmed.[1]
Many considered the conference predominently served as a holding pattern, that kept the international structure going and not much more.
As an example, the International Institute for Sustainable Development said:
This year’s conference—which the Presidency had framed as the “implementation COP”—was meant to focus less on what the world must do and more on how to make it all happen. With major commitments already on the table to tackle global warming and ensure we can adapt to the worsening impacts of climate change, negotiators were expected to pin down tools, indicators, and processes to turn aspirations into action.
But deep divisions on finance, trade measures, mitigation pathways, and other areas stalled progress on these decisions until the very last moment. The outcome of the conference left many disappointed, including more than 80 countries that pushed for a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels in the final deal. Those who supported a stronger outcome on climate finance for developing countries were equally discouraged.
In particular, a group of about 80 countries pressed for a road map to guide the transition away from oil, gas and coal towards a cleaner economy
However, this failed, with Health Policy Watch reporting:
The package of voluntary measures dubbed the “Global Mutirão,” Portuguese for collective effort, nixed any mention of fossil fuels and failed to include a deforestation roadmap backed by over 90 nations, exposing deep fractures in global climate diplomacy. More than half of the nearly 200 nations in attendance opposed even non-binding language on oil, gas and coal phase-out despite scientific projections showing the world remains on track for 2.6 to 2.8 degrees Celsius of warming.
A roadmap on transitioning away from fossil fuels will sit outside the formal COP process and will be guided by a conference in April on transitioning away from fossil fuels co-hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands in 2026. This will be discussed later.
Others (particularly oil producing states such as Saudi Arabia and China) had concerns about the impact that some devices created to reduce carbon emissions may have, with some measures, such as the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM)proposed by the EU as being as being a unilateral trade measure (UTM) constituting an unfair restraint of trade.
(The EU considers a CBAM as ‘part of our climate toolbox, making sure that emissions don’t leak out of the European Union’, and not a trade measure)
Whilst one circulated draft text published during the second week of the conference noted with concern the impact of UTMs such as the CBAM, ultimately the final decision on the Just Transition Work Programme removed all references to trade, and the final declaration:
Request[ing] the subsidiary bodies to hold a dialogue at their sixty-fourth, sixty-sixth (June 2027) and sixty-eighth sessions (June 2028), with the participation of Parties and other stakeholders, including the International Trade Centre, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and the World Trade Organization, to consider opportunities, challenges and barriers in relation to enhancing international cooperation related to the role of trade, taking into account [that measures taken to combat climate change, including unilateral ones, should not constitute a means of arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination or a disguised restriction on international trade], decides to exchange experiences and views on related matters at a high-level event in 2028 and requests the subsidiary bodies to present a report summarizing the discussions at the high-level event;[2]
A number of agreements were made during the conference, with two substantive matters appearing in the final declaration.
One was called the ‘Global Implementation Accelerator’, which is:
a cooperative, facilitative and voluntary initiative under the guidance of the Presidencies of the seventh and eighth sessions (November 2026) of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement to accelerate implementation across all actors to keep 1.5 °C within reach and supporting countries in implementing their nationally determined contributions and national adaptation plans.[3]
The second was the launching of the ‘Belém Mission to 1.5’, aimed at:
enabling ambition and implementation of nationally determined contributions and national adaptation plans, to reflect on accelerating implementation, international cooperation and investment in nationally determined contributions and national adaptation plans across mitigation and adaptation[4]
COP 30 and Australia
Australia signed a number of agreements over the course of the conference.
One was the Belem Declaration on the Transition Away From Fossil Fuels
The declaration itself was a scant two pages, which confirmed the intention of the signatories to ‘work collectively towards a just, orderly and equitable transition away from fossil fuels’ – language reflected in the language from the Third Letter from the COP 30 Presidency.
It:
- ‘welcomed’ the Advisory Opinion (AO) on the obligations of states in respect of climate change (which generally found that States have a duty to prevent significant harm to the environment and to comply with the Framework Convention on climate change) from the International Court of Justice (ICJ);
- ‘recalled’ the efforts under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as well as the result of the Global Stocktake (GST-1) conducted in 2023, where countries recognized the need to transition away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade[5] and
- supported a call to ‘advance a roadmap for the transition away from fossil fuels to scale-up collective action and implementation.
The first International Conference to develop the roadmap will be held in Colombia in April 2026, although Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen will not travel to the event, even though he is the COP 31 negotiations president.
Another agreement was the Belem Declaration on Global Green Industrialisation, in which Australia joined a coalition of countries calling for accelerated decarbonisation of heavy emitting industries and promoting green industrialisation in pursuit of ‘global justice and development goals’.
It commenced by:
Recognising that without deep emissions cuts from heavy industry and advances in clean technology industries (including renewable energy technologies, energy storage, energy efficiency, circular production, and sustainable mining) – collectively referred to as ‘green industrialization’ – global carbon emissions reduction goals, in line with the Paris Agreement, cannot be met,[6]
and declared that, building on a joint statement by Brazil, South Africa and the United Kingdom at the conclusion of the Global Green Industrialization Dialogue – which discussed ‘actionable strategies across four pillars of green industrialization: finance, technology and innovation, people and resilient cleantech supply chains’, a raft of actions that were to be taken to create:
international support for green industrialization through a coordination and delivery mechanism and institutional architecture that supports the Global Climate Action Agenda, and incorporates and builds on the Breakthrough Agenda, by establishing a Secretariat hosted by UNIDO as a multilateral agency that will partner with other leading coordinating international bodies and initiatives globally.
The United Nations Industrial Development Organisation said:
It provides a shared framework for governments, international organizations, the private sector, academia and civil society to coordinate the planning and scaling of new industrial systems. At the same time, it promotes effective monitoring, transparency around stakeholder actions and alignment with the goals of the Global Stocktake and the Sustainable Development Goals.
Australia also signed the Green Public Procurement Pledge. Starting in 2030, require procurement of a share of cement and/or crude steel from near zero emission material production for signature projects.
Conclusion
According to some:
The UN climate summit marking the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement to keep global warming under 1.5 °C ended in trademark UN fashion: a text laying out next steps to speak about plans to agree to make more plans
Nevertheless, as indicated in the Guardian:
And despite the weakness of the outcome, one can gain some important comfort by the fact that Bélem – and the G20 in Johannesburg at the weekend – both solidly endorsed the Paris agreement, its central goal of keeping warming to 1.5C and the importance of net zero emissions.
They also reported the Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Simon Stiell as saying, in relation to paragraph 10 of the final agreement, which acknowledges that the global transition towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development is irreversible and the trend of the future is ‘ a political and market signal that cannot be ignored.’
The International Institute for Sustainable Development also observed:
Still, there were some positive outcomes and a clear desire to make progress in the months and years ahead, including through collaboration outside of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process.
And as the Australian reported:
Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen is signalling to Pacific allies that a transition away from fossil fuels will be central to his work as the world’s new top emissions reduction negotiator, despite Anthony Albanese backing in gas use and coal exports at the G20.
With the final COP30 treaty in Brazil failing to put a fossil fuels phase-out plan in its final text and a walkout by some countries that want coal and gas decimated, Mr Bowen said he would work hard with Turkey to make the compromised climate summit in Antalya next year a success and forge a plan to limit the rise in global temperatures to 1.5C.
Bowen will be President of negotiations, which confers ‘exclusive authority in relation to the negotiations to shape and guide global decision making in support of the multilateral system and global trade and investment in clean energy industries’.
Conversely, as Clayton Utz discussed:
While the outcomes of COP30 fall short of the certainty that business would have liked to have seen, the clear imperative remains delivering climate change action consistent with achieving the Paris goals. For Australian businesses, national policy including the 2035 target make that trajectory clear, including with it the need to augment existing domestic policies and schemes to achieve it.
Australia’s further commitments including under the Belém Declaration to establish a road map to phase out fossil fuels will present further challenges both to business and all levels of government. Reconciling that commitment and any future road map with Australia’s own energy transition, may require a revision of the sectoral plans recently released as part of the Net Zero Plan to identify further opportunities for decarbonisation.
whilst The Prime Minister was reported as saying at the recent G20 summit:
The Prime Minister at South Africa’s G20 summit – where world leaders rebuked a boycotting Donald Trump on everything from net zero to trade – declared he would put no limit on coal exports, and dug over his support for new gas extraction in Australia, including the long-stalled project in NSW’s Narrabri.
“(Gas) is needed,” Mr Albanese said in Johannesburg.
“It’s a part of the transition which is occurring.
“What you need to back up renewables is firming capacity, that’s what’s enabling the investment to occur.”
And as recently reported coal fired power stations are estimated to be required to stabilise the renewables grid until 2049.
It also remains an important source of export revenue. Australia exported $91.4 billion worth of coal in 2023-24.
The observations set out above identify a clear tension between tension between:
- from an Australian perspective, a political need to be seen to be a world leader in controlling carbon emissions and the economic needs of the economy; and
- from an international perspective, the economic self-interests of individual countries and the slow and incremental increase in market interventions aimed to reduce carbon emissions supported by international elites and a massive environment bureaucracy, ratcheted forward one international agreement at a time
which leads to community confusion and investment uncertainty, that can’t continue forever.
Maybe the period between now and COP 31 in Turkey will be the time where these uncertainties are finally recognised and reconciled. Maybe.
[1] Paragraph 6
[2] Paragraph 57
[3] Paragraph 41
[4] Paragraph 42
[5] Paragraph 28(d)
[6] Paragraph 1